The following Dodgers have been smited by the JDK for their crimes against Jam:
All the girls! for picking on the JDK and damaging his already delicate self esteem!
The Basserd Who Nicked Copper's Stuff For the offense of nicking Copper's stuff. You are a tw*t, whoever you are and we all hope you get run over by a tram in Nottingham. Or Liverpool. Or whereever else they have trams!
Copper For the crime of playing with her Wii instead of her Jammie pals!
Well, I've made some really stupid bets in the past (I actually won the worst bet I have ever made), but my superbowl positions was some of the finer betting I've ever demonstrated!
This is actually a good conceptual example of how to create an optimized, hedged position; a financial straddle where you don’t cap your upside and you do cap your downside on a sports bet.
This might be easier to follow if you understand Yankee football, but what the hell…
Two things are required to make this work:
1) Pick the actual winner
2) Find insane people who bet with their hearts (versus statistical probability)
#1 was easy, Pats; everyone, including Vegas, was in on this, except people falling into category #2. And note, point spreads are actually important!
Position 1:
Okay, M1, simply likes to argue, if I say Pats, he says Eagles; I get $10 on the Pats, no point spread.
Position 2:
M2 simply likes to take a position similar to M1's with no real insight as to what she's getting herself into; I take the Pats for $5, no point spread
Position 3 (The Uncapped Hedge):
The most interesting position and the real beauty of this operation comes into play right here.
N1 comes running up to me, really late in the evening on Saturday, after people have bought me one too many shots and declares "I want to bet on the super bowl!" I said "Fine, I'll take the Patriots." He says "No, I want the Patriots." I ask "How bad do you want 'em? I'll take the Eagles with a 21 point-spread (which is ridiculous, but the trick is to keep a straight face)." He says "Two touchdowns and I win." I says "Fine I'll take the Eagles, 13.5 point-spread."
So, I have $10 on the Eagles, with a 13.5 point-spread
At this point I'm laughing my ass of at the bar, having realized what I just did, and no one seems to get it, except me, I tried explaining this to a couple of people, but they weren't computing…
Sounds crazy right, $15 on the Patriots, $10 on the Eagles? Er, not exactly. There are only three possible outcomes at this point:
1) Pats win by two touchdowns or more, I win $5
2) Pats win by less than two touchdowns, I win $25
3) Eagles win, I loose $5
I've basically purchased insurance at no cost to me. I've placed $25 worth of bets and at this point I have an the full upside of $25 and a capped max downside of $5, and I get to bet on the team I want to bet on, and it didn't cost me a dime!
Basically, I know the following:
The Patriots should win, and they should win by less than 1 touchdown and two field goals, at which point I win all of my positions, which I did.
I explained the setup to my friend Steph, her response was:
"Nate, you need therapy."
Some people just don't know how to appreciate ****!
I played this thing very sanely, mate; however, the group mentioned in requirement #2 [as mentioned in my original post to this thread] might benefit from a check-up at the bin!
